Saturday, December 5, 2015

What If Iran Win the Iraq-Iran War (Part 2)

In first part, I talked about what if Iraq win the Iraq Iran War. Now I will talk about Iran. Iran, shortly become the offensive party, after Iraq failed to defeats Iran. The Iran, anyway can't also cleared it objective, to down the Saddam. So, without waiting too long, let's look on possibilities if Iran win Iran Iraq War. Stay tune!

Iran, Iraq, and its neighbors map. The north is in left side of maps (yes, I'm anti-mainstream). ©Google
1. Iran Become the Regional Power
This is the opposite of what happened if Iraq win the Iraq Iran War. The Iran, before the Iraq Iran War itself has become one of the most powerful nation in the Middle East, and after conquer Iraq, it power will exceed the Saudi Arabia and Israel force (the other regional power in Middle East). Because it large area, the Iran will not experience any land shortage, and at that land there's lot amount of oil and other resources (I has talk about that in Part 1).

The Iran will have large amount of population, so they will have many army (that consists from Iraqi and Iranian). Iran, even with US sanctions that prohibits any US products to enter Iran, so their weaponry that mainly consist from US products (they are buy that weapon at Pahlevi regime time, US best friends, you know) can't gained any original spare part from it manufacturers, still have other way to get their weaponry to the battlefield. The example is with the great Iranian F-14 (Iran is one of only 2 user of F-14, the other is US).

The Iran, at Pahlevi regime are buy F-14 and the maintenance hangars. The US also train few Iran technician to repair the F-14. So, the F-14 spare part, are either make by Iran technician, or cannibalizing the other F-14. The Iranian F-14 also has shoot down 160 Iraqi aircraft with only 12-16 F-14 that crash because mechanical failure. The same also applies to other Iran armory that purchased from US.

Iran missile
2. Iran Isolated From International World
The Iranian itself has being isolated by US and its allies at the time of Iraq Iran War. But after Iran win Iraq Iran War, not only US that isolated Iran, but also Soviet Union and its allies. The Soviet Union and US, support Iraq at Iraq Iran War. You know, the US is hate Iran under Ayatollah regime. But, USSR itself hmmm... support Iraq but USSR also supports Iran. USSR exporting it weapons to both Iraq and Iran, the Iraq and Iran itself both relies it weapons support to USSR.

The Iran is isolated, by embargoed any Iranian products and not allowed any products from every country that was US and USSR allies. The Iranian people will also counter difficulties when they travel to other country (like must using visa to travel to any country, must have invitations letters from someone inside that countries, interrogated every times they arrive in any country, and many other restrictions). The Iranian vehicle, like aircraft, cars, and ship are unable to enter many countries, or at least restricted. This can be a tough time for Iranian army, airlines, oil companies, and many other.

3. Iranian Economy Will Crumble
This because embargo that sanctioned Iran. The Iran company, that works in exporting and importing, will be the first that impacted by the embargo. The reason is obvious, they cannot imported or exported anything again. The second, was the company that relies on goods that need to imported, like airlines and some manufacturing company. As they relies on goods that Iran can't product, they will fall in bankruptcy, except if they use some "dirty trick", like using the spare part exceeding their lifetime, cannibalizing the spare part, or just ignoring that for Airline.

The third is company that was airlines and manufacturing company clients. It example was shipping company, airport company, oil companies, shops, ticket seller, and many other. The last one, is all of Iranian population, as they can't buy things that they needed (because the company that sells that has bankrupt), many people will not have job, and Iranian products can't be sell to other countries.